Category: grain

Da Bulls and Da Bears: June 8, 2016

by Beth Wischmeyer on 06.08.2016
On the bull side of the ledger, world-wide weather continues to impact grain prices. From flooding in parts of Europe, with the potential to impact the wheat crop there, and the forecast in the U.S. turning hotter and drier, potentially impacting corn and soybean development, there is plenty to be concerned about. Another 30 days from now, and we’ll know a lot more about the U.S. crops, but that seems like a long time from here.

Da Bulls and Da Bears: May 2, 2016

by Beth Wischmeyer on 05.02.2016

Despite what you see outside of your back door, planting in the U.S. continues to progress.  As of Monday, May 2nd, the USDA reported 45 percent of the corn acres planted. This compares to a 5 year average of 30 percent.  Beans are at 8 percent, compared to 6 percent on average for the past 5 years.  

Da Bulls and Da Bears: April 21, 2016

by Beth Wischmeyer on 04.21.2016
The most recent report from the USDA shows U.S. corn planting at 13%, surpassing last year’s progress of 7% for the same time frame, and an average of 8% for the past 5 years.  Despite the decent start, this week’s rain event is getting some notice, and causing a little bit of concern.  
When a farm vehicle is involved in a collision in the public right-of-way, there often is a large difference in the relative speed of the two vehicles. A passenger car traveling at 55 miles per hour approaches a tractor traveling in the same direction at 15 miles per hour at a rate of 59 feet per second. If the car does not slow down, it reduces the distance between itself and the tractor by the length of a football field in just 5 seconds. 

Da Bulls and Da Bears: April 4, 2016

by Beth Wischmeyer on 04.04.2016

After a fairly steep drop from the first part of October until the first part of March, the soy complex has found some solid footing and has been climbing fairly steadily the past 30 days.  Part of this has been attributed to the funds moving from a net short position to a net long position.  There is also an issue with the Palm crop in Southeast Asia that is affecting the supply of palm oil, and pushing up the value of competing oils, like soy oil. 

Da Bulls and Da Bears: February 9, 2016

by Beth Wischmeyer on 03.09.2016
Irrespective of which source you use, funds are holding a fairly sizeable short position.  I’ve seen numbers in excess of 200,000 contracts of corn.  That’s more than a billion bushels.  They are also short more than 100,000 contracts of soybeans and more than 100,000 contracts of wheat.  There’s another billion bushels.  So, all in all, big numbers.  

Da Bulls and Da Bears: February 1, 2016

by Beth Wischmeyer on 02.01.2016
Regardless of whether we’re talking about foreign stock markets/economies, crude oil, or the U.S. dollar, it seems that all of these factors continue to keep a lid on grain values.  There hasn’t been a day so far this year that something in the “outside” markets hasn’t put pressure on grains.  Will that change?  

Da Bulls and Da Bears: January 8, 2016

by Beth Wischmeyer on 01.08.2016

Let me start by saying that the bear factors continue to be easier to identify.  However, looking at how short the funds are in commodities, starts to make me wonder if they are oversold.  At some point, they will need to reverse course, and this will be bullish when it starts to happen.   If we can just get a few of these fund managers to take the contrarian view, perhaps that could be the start of a move higher.  

Da Bulls and Da Bears

by Beth Wischmeyer on 12.17.2015
Several years ago, I attended a marketing analysis meeting and the speakers focused on various items affecting the grain markets.  Their presentation played off of the Saturday Night Live skit and was titled ‘Da Bulls and ‘Da Bears.  I thought this might be a good way to kick off our new grain marketing communication piece. 

USDA Supply and Demand Report issued 6-10-15

by Beth Wischmeyer on 06.10.2015

For the day, July corn finished down 7 3/4, while July beans were off 2. The main drag on corn was the pounding that wheat took today, finishing down about 18 cents, with pressure coming from an increase in US wheat production, wheat harvest and expectations for much needed rains in Canada and the EU.    

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