At 11 a.m. today, the USDA released their latest WASDE (world agricultural supply and demand estimates). While the U.S. production numbers were generally in line with the analysts’ average estimates, the ending stocks information was slightly lower than expected. Let’s break it down crop by crop.
For U.S. corn, they are projecting a 16/17 crop of 14.54 billion bushels, using 94.1 million planted acres that we saw in the June 30th report, with 86.6 million acres harvested and a national average yield of 168. For comparison, the final 15/16 U.S. corn crop was 13.6 billion. Ending stocks for 15/16 are expected to be 1.701 billion, which is down slightly from June’s estimate of 1.708, but significantly lower than the average estimate of 1.8. Given their total demand estimate of 14.2 billion, it will leave 2.081 billion at the end of the 16/17 crop year.
World corn ending stocks for 15/16 are estimated at 206.90 million metric tons, vs. 206.45 projected last month. 16/17 ending stocks are expected to be 208.4, which is an increase from last month’s 205.1
For U.S. soybeans, they are projecting a crop of 3.880 billion bushels, using 83.7 million planted acres and 83.0 million harvested and an average yield of 46.7. The 15/16 crop was 3.929 billion bushels on about a million less acres planted and harvested, because of a 48.0 bushel national average yield. The ending stocks for 15/16 are expected to be 350 million bushels vs. an estimate last month of 370 million. For 16/17, the ending stocks are estimated at 290 vs. an average estimate of 295.
World soybean ending stocks for 15/16 are projected at 72.17 million metric tons, vs. 72.29 in June. 16/17 ending stocks are now expected to be 67.1 vs. 66.3 last month.
The report pushed grain prices higher initially. Feels like we go back to trading weather forecasts soon, so if you are trying to get something priced, this might be the spike you’re looking for. It would also be a good time to leave a firm offer in place. Many of these are getting hit during the night trade, so it’s a good way to get the fill you want. As always, contact your local grain buyer to discuss your particular needs.
-Tom Guinan, Grain Orgination Manager